Fernando Alonso believes he has a 25% chance of winning the German Grand Prix on Sunday if the conditions remain dry.
The Ferrari driver qualified fourth behind the two Red Bulls and Lewis Hamilton's McLaren on Saturday, but said so far this season his car has been quicker in race conditions.
"I am happy with my lap and with the result and anyway, this year we have seen that we have always gone better in the race than in qualifying," he said. "Let's see what the weather will do tomorrow, as rain is forecast. If it turned out to be dry, then we can claim to have a 25% chance of winning and a bit less if it rains, but only because so far, in the wet others have been better than us.
"Maybe tomorrow the situation could turn around, you never know. I am still aiming for the podium, but if the chance of a win comes along I won't need to be asked twice. Also at this track, we have seen the updates we have introduced helping to improve our performance, race after race. Clearly, we must take a further step forward if we want to be up there with the best."
He said he was not disappointed by qualifying fourth on the grid, despite featuring in the top two in both practice sessions on Friday.
"We are neither surprised nor disappointed, quite the contrary in fact," he said. "This grid is more or less what we could have expected from what we had seen in free practice yesterday.
"We thought the Red Bulls would be three or four tenths faster than us and that was the case and then even Hamilton went very well, especially in the first sector and got in between us. In fact, McLaren had so many new parts here and you could see they were working well."
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